Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 130839
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

Proxy-visible GOES-16 satellite imagery and data from an earlier 
scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center of the 
depression is displaced to the south of the main area of deep 
convection.  Recently, however, some new convection is forming 
closer to the estimated center which suggests some re-organization 
of the system may be taking place.  Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and 
SAB are only 1.0, but the current intensity estimates from these 
agencies still support 30 kt.  Since the shear is not expected to 
increase significantly for the next day or so, strengthening is 
still forecast in the short term.  Beginning around 2-3 days, 
southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough over 
the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to weaken. The 
official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus. 

The latest center fixes show that the cyclone is moving 
west-northwestward, or around 285/13 kt.  There has been little 
change to the track forecast or reasoning from the previous 
advisory.  The system should continue to move west-northwestward on 
the south side of the subtropical ridge into the weekend. By day 3 
a turn toward the northwest is likely in response to weakness in 
the ridge followed by a turn toward the north-northwest as 
the cyclone moves through this weakness late in the period.  The 
official track forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected model 
consensus, or HCCA, prediction and not much different from the 
previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 12.9N  47.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 13.8N  49.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 14.9N  52.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 16.2N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 17.6N  57.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 18.8N  60.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 20.3N  62.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 23.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 26.0N  68.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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