Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 132037
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
500 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

There has been little change in the organization of Josephine since 
the last advisory.  The low-level center is located near the 
southern edge of the main convective mass, and there is some weak 
outer banding in the northern semicircle.  The initial intensity is 
held at 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. 
Some arc clouds west of the main convective mass suggest that dry 
air is entraining into the system.  However, where this dry air is 
coming from is not readily apparent in satellite imagery or model 
analyses.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/14 kt.
Josephine should continue this motion for the next 3-4 days as
it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge.  The global models forecast the western end of
the ridge to weaken even more by the end of the forecast period, 
which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, 
to turn northwestward.  The track guidance remains tightly 
clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of 
the previous track trough 48 h and close to the previous track 
thereafter.  On the forecast track, Josephine should pass far enough 
to the northeast of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts.  
However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its 
progress until the storm has gone by.

Josephine has about 36 h to strengthen before it encounters 
significant southwesterly shear.  The new intensity forecast is 
unchanged in showing the storm strengthening to a peak intensity 
of 50 kt in 24-36 h.  After that, some minor tweaks were made to 
the intensity during the expected shear-induced weakening.  The new 
forecast intensity follows the overall trend of the intensity 
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 14.5N  50.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 15.5N  52.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.9N  55.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 18.3N  57.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 19.6N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 20.9N  62.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 22.0N  64.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 25.0N  67.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 28.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



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