Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 140836
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

As has been the case for the last couple of days, the center of the 
tropical storm is displaced to the south of the main area of deep 
convection.  Some new convective cells have been forming nearer to 
the estimated center, but the overall cloud pattern is quite 
ragged-looking at this time.  ASCAT data from a few hours ago 
indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, which is consistent with 
the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  NOAA data buoy 41040 
confirmed that the system still has a closed circulation since it 
reported light westerly winds while the center of Josephine passed 
to its north.  An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
is scheduled to investigate the storm later today.  Josephine is 
beginning to move into an environment of increasing vertical shear 
associated with a large upper-tropospheric trough over the western 
Atlantic.  Therefore, the window of opportunity for strengthening 
is closing soon.  The official intensity forecast allows for some 
intensification during the next 24 hours before the upper-level 
winds become prohibitively strong.  However, the NHC forecast is 
now above most of the model intensity guidance through 72 hours.

The storm continues its west-northwestward motion and is moving at 
about 300/15 kt.  Josephine should continue this general motion 
as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48 hours or 
so.  Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the 
weakness in 3-4 days.  Late in the forecast period, Josephine or 
its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward while it 
approaches the higher-latitude westerlies.  The official track 
forecast is essentially the same as the previous one, and also lies 
close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus.

Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts.  However,
interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until
the storm has passed north of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 15.3N  53.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 16.5N  55.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 18.0N  58.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 19.1N  60.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 20.3N  62.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 21.6N  65.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 23.1N  66.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 26.0N  67.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 30.0N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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