Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion

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193 
WTNT42 KNHC 142041
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122020
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Earlier this afternoon, one-minute visible satellite imagery 
clearly showed that an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic 
coast of the U.S. had developed a well defined center. Banding 
convection wraps from the northeast to the southeast quadrant of 
the cyclone, and a combination of surface obs, ship reports, and 
buoy data all indicate that the system is not frontal. Although its 
organization is limited by strong southwesterly upper-level winds, 
the convection appears to be sufficiently well organized to 
classify the system as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT data 
indicated that the maximum winds were between 30 and 35 kt, so the 
initial intensity is set at 35 kt, assuming some slight 
undersampling may have occurred. Kyle is the earliest 11th named 
storm on record for the Atlantic basin. The previous record was 
Katrina, which became a tropical storm on August 24, 2005.

Kyle is moving quickly east-northeastward along the northern portion 
of the Gulf Stream, and its future as a tropical cyclone is likely 
tied to how long it remains over those warm waters. A mid-latitude 
trough will continue to steer the system generally 
east-northeastward for the next few days, with some increase in 
forward speed. This will cause the storm to move quickly 
northeastward away from the U.S. coast and well south of the 
Canadian Maritimes.

As long as the tropical cyclone remains over warm waters, some 
strengthening is possible, and this is reflected in all of the 
intensity guidance. That said, strong upper-level winds will likely 
keep the system sufficiently sheared to prevent significant tropical 
strengthening. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin within 
48 h, and should be complete by 60 h. Sometime around or just after 
72 h, the low is forecast to either merge with or be absorbed by a 
larger extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic. 
The NHC intensity forecast is based on the multi-model consensus, 
with a little extra weight given to the global models for the 
extratropical phase.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 37.7N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 38.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 40.0N  64.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 41.4N  60.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 42.4N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 43.1N  51.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  17/1800Z 43.1N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




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