Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 150236
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020
0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  57.4W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  30SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  57.4W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  56.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N  59.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.4N  61.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N  63.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.2N  65.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N  67.2W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.4N  67.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N  67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 33.0N  64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N  57.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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