Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory

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890 
WTNT21 KNHC 152034
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020
2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  61.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  61.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  61.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.8N  63.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.1N  65.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.4N  67.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.9N  68.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N  69.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 28.0N  69.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 30.5N  68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 33.0N  65.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  61.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





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