Tropical Depression Josephine Forecast Discussion

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752 
WTNT41 KNHC 161451
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Josephine Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020

Strong vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on
Josephine, with the exposed center continuing to race well
ahead of the primary convective mass.  A new burst of convection
has developed a little closer to the center within the past couple
of hours, but with the continued loss of organization the initial
wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt.  With strong shear forecast
to prevail over the cyclone during the next few days, continued
weakening is expected and Josephine will likely become a remnant
low within 24 hours or dissipate by opening into a trough of low
pressure.  Although the shear could lessen somewhat in a few days,
it appears that there will not be much left of the system to take
advantage of those conditions.  As a result, the new NHC forecast
calls for the dissipation of the remnant low by 96 hours.

Josephine jogged a bit westward overnight, but the longer term
motion is 285/11 kt.  The system is forecast to turn northwestward
over the next 24-36 hours as the ridge over the western Atlantic 
weakens due to an approaching trough of low pressure.  As the low- 
to mid-level trough moves offshore of the southeastern United 
States, this should cause Josephine or it remnants to turn 
northward on Tuesday. The updated track forecast is a little to the 
left of the previous advisory, primarily to more southward and 
westward initial position, however, it still lies near the middle 
of the track guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 20.4N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 21.3N  66.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 22.5N  67.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0000Z 23.9N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 25.5N  69.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0000Z 26.8N  69.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 28.2N  68.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




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