Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 212354
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142020
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 84.7W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 18.3 North, longitude 84.7 West.  The depression is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A slower northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an
increase in speed by Sunday and Monday.  On the forecast track, the
center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.  The center will then cross the
northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move
over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on
Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight
or early Saturday.  The system could be near hurricane strength when
it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional
strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over
the central Gulf of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter plane is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon
and will spread northward and westward within the warning area
Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.  This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



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