Tropical Depression Laura Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 280234
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Laura Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Laura has continued to spin down after being over land for nearly a 
day.  Surface observations no longer support tropical storm 
intensity, and therefore the system is being downgraded to a 
tropical depression.  The cyclone should become a post-tropical 
low within a couple of days, and then transform into an 
extratropical cyclone while moving off the U.S. east coast.  The 
official forecast shows some restrengthening in 2-4 days due to 
baroclinic processes.  However, by the end of the forecast period, 
the system should be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone to 
the east of the Canadian Maritimes.

Laura continues to move north-northeastward or at about 015/13 kt.  
A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with increasing 
forward speed is likely while the cyclone becomes embedded in the 
stronger westerly flow.  The official track forecast follows the 
latest dynamical model consensus.

There is a continued threat of flooding from Laura for the next 
couple of days.  This is the last NHC advisory on Laura.  Future 
information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be 
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center 
beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header 
WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov 


Key Messages:

1. Additional rainfall will continue to lead to flash flooding 
along small streams, urban areas, roadways, and minor to moderate 
river flooding across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and 
Arkansas.  The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding 
potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, 
lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and 
Saturday.

2. A few tornadoes remain possible this evening across eastern 
Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and the Missouri 
Bootheel. The risk for a few tornadoes is expected to redevelop 
Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the Mid-South and 
Tennessee Valley regions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 35.1N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  28/1200Z 36.3N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/0000Z 37.3N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 38.0N  82.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 38.5N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  30/1200Z 41.5N  67.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0000Z 44.0N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/0000Z 48.0N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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